Big Pine, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

007
FXUS65 KVEF 131150
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
450 AM PDT Sun Apr 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures cool further today, but will remain well
above average through midweek. Gusty northwest winds will increase
across the southern Great Basin this afternoon and will spread into
the Mojave Desert through Monday afternoon. Breezy afternoons
continue through the week under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.
Low confidence in the forecast late-week, as we continue to assess
the possibility for a return of precipitation chances, gusty winds,
and lower temperatures.
&&


.SHORT TERM...Today and Monday.

The trough axis associated with the shortwave moving through the
Intermountain West will push through the region today, with post-
frontal gusty northwest winds. Northwest winds will be strongest in
the southwestern Great Basin (Esmeralda, southern Nye, and northern
Inyo counties) with speeds generally between 20 and 30 mph (stronger
gusts in the higher terrain). These northwest winds will spread
southeastward through the forecast area today through Monday
morning, with breezy northwest winds between 15 and 25 mph across
the Mojave Desert.

Meanwhile, a shortwave will push counter-clockwise into Baja
California as it wraps around a deepening upper-level low in the
southeastern Pacific Ocean. This shortwave will approach the
forecast area on Monday, resulting in a decrease in wind speeds and
an increase in mid-level moisture (and cloud cover). Very modest
PoPs across our southern zones as a result of this shortwave, with
highest PoPs (10-20%) in the higher terrain of San Bernardino
County. Cannot rule out a stray lightning strike, but overall, not
expecting much in the way of impacts, as the low-levels remain quite
dry. Details regarding this shortwave continue in the LONG TERM
discussion.

Despite these shortwaves entering the region over the next couple of
days, heights will remain elevated across the Desert Southwest, so
temperatures will continue to range 8 to 12 degrees above seasonal
normals, with widespread "Minor" Heat Risk.


.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Next Weekend.

Significant shifts in model output has occurred in the past 24
hours, which impacts the forecast for Tuesday as well as late
Thursday through the weekend.

What was a dry and quiet weather period on Tuesday now features a
shortwave transitioning through the region, which will bring the
potential for precipitation. While all the models have shifted to
this solution, they are not all on the same page with differing
tracks and strength of the shortwave as it moves through. This will
play in a role in how much moisture will advect into the region with
shortwave and the amount of forcing that will be available for
precipitation to develop. Moisture increases in all solutions, with
PWATs increasing to 120% to 200% of normal depending on which
ensemble output you look at. The NBM 90th Percentile 24-hour QPF
shows wetting rain across much of southern Nevada through the
Colorado River Valley and Mohave County- though the amounts remain
low and below significant impact levels. Will need to watch how this
will develop, especially if the higher moisture and stronger
shortwave solutions ends up being the end result, but current high
end rainfall amounts keep precipitation impacts minor. All the model
solutions would also support a warmer track which would limit
potential snow impacts. Finally, winds should not be significant as
the pressure and temperature gradients are not overly impressive on
any solutions and no ensemble gust members show strong winds.

After a brief break in the action Wednesday: another, more potent
system may impact the region late Thursday into the weekend. In the
past 24 hours, models have taken a turn and are now trending towards
a solution where a Pacific Northwest low digs into the region and
phases with a low sitting off the southern California coast, rapidly
deepening somewhere over the western US as it does so. There is
significant model differences in how this will play out, then add in
the inherent low confidence in models resolving phasing systems-
there is high uncertainty in the forecast Thursday through the
weekend. The current "worst case" 90th percentile 48hr QPF has
significantly increased in the past 24 hours and suggest higher
impacts than what it was showing yesterday. There is now a 30%
chance for over 0.50inch of rain through the weekend in parts of
southern Nevada and western Arizona when it was showing less than
10% regionally at this time yesterday. Also of note, the spread in
high temperatures on Friday is anywhere from 5-10 degrees above
normal to 10-15 below normal. Winds would be the other concern with
this system as it deepens over the area- especially if we see the
colder solution (a significant drop in temperatures would suggest
gusty winds with a strong temperature gradient). All this to say-
there is potential for impactful weather the end of next week but
it`s too early to say if it will happen or what those impacts would
look like. Changes are expected in probabilities for impacts and
weather details with this system- Stay tuned!
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Breezy
southwesterly winds will continue through sunrise when winds will
shift around to the north or northeast in the morning hours, and
winds may briefly climb into the 10-15 knot range before easing for
the remainder of the afternoon and becoming southwesterly again in
the evening. A renewed push of northeast winds are possible after
06z Sunday night with winds continuing to maintain a northeasterly
component through Monday morning. BKN high clouds will gradually
thin and clear out.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Northerly-to-
northeasterly winds will push into southern Nevada and the Colorado
River Valley this morning. Westerly winds will continue across the
western Mojave Desert this morning, gradually decreasing and
becoming light and variable this afternoon before swinging back to
the west this evening. The northern Owens Valley will continue to
see northwesterly-to-northerly winds throughout the day today with
winds becoming more variable overnight. Aside from some high clouds,
no operationally significant cloud cover is expected.

&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soulat
LONG TERM...Nickerson
AVIATION...Outler

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter